Viewing archive of Friday, 15 July 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jul 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jul 2016	095	013
16 Jul 2016	094	015
17 Jul 2016	093	016

Bulletin

Active Region (AR) 2567 produced the largest flare, a B7.4 class flare peaking at 05:12 UT, AR 2565 (Macintosh class:Cao; Mag. type:Beta) has shown some evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, this may increase flaring activity. All other ARs appear relatively stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large +ve polarity trans-equatorial northern polar coronal hole in the Western hemisphere. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with a reasonable probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares.

The solar wind speed jumped from around around 550 km/s to 650 km/s at 21:00 UT yesterday. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 2-3 (NOAA) and local K index 2-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The increased solar wind speed reflects the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) created by the large northern polar coronal hole in the Western hemisphere, if coupled with negative Bz we may experience enhanced geomagnetic activity over the next few days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	111
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	057 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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