Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 July 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jul 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Jul 2016	104	009
17 Jul 2016	103	010
18 Jul 2016	102	021

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been increasing. The largest flare was a C6.8 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2567 (Macintosh class:Dac; Mag. type:Beta-Gamma-Delta) has been the most active producing the C6.8 class flare, peaking at 07:04 UT this morning. The region shows evidence of flux emergence and cancellation in HMI magnetogram observations, this region is likely to produce further flaring activity. AR 2564 has also produced a couple of C class flares, and AR 2565 B class flares. Other regions appear stable. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. There is currently a large +ve polarity northern polar coronal hole extending to low latitudes located on the Western limb of the Sun. Solar activity is expected to remain at medium levels over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has been slowly decreasing from around around 650 km/s to 575 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 4 nT, but jumped up to 6 nT at 11:00 UT this morning. The Bz component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -4 and +4 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed has been decreasing following the High Speed Stream (HSS) created by the large northern polar coronal hole close to the Western limb. If the enhanced wind speeds are coupled with negative Bz this may increase geomagnetic activity over the next couple of days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	113
10cm solar flux	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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