Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 September 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Sep 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Sep 2016	085	011
16 Sep 2016	084	011
17 Sep 2016	083	007

Bulletin

Solar activity is low with no flares reported during last 24 hours. All two active region, presently observed on the visible side of the solar disk have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha configuration). A fast CME with angular width of about 100 degrees erupted off the east solar limb at 23:36 UT on September 14 (as detected by CACTUS). STEREO-A data demonstrate that the event is initiated by the filament eruption at the backside of the Sun and will not affect the Earth. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a small probability of C-class flares. Solar wind speed continued its gradual decline from about 350 km/s to its current value around 320 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (Bt) has increased from 8 nT to 10 nT and remained stable, while Bz has been negative during last 24 hours, ranging between -5 nT and -8 nT. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were reported, with an isolated minor storming episode during the 21-23 UT interval reported by Dourbes. Geomagnetic conditions have been mostly quiet (K Dourbes between 1 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions (K Dourbes = 3-4) are possible from today (15-Sep-2016) due to the increased values of the solar wind parameters.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 023, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Sep 2016

Wolf number Catania	034
10cm solar flux	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	029 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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