Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Oct 2016	098	005
13 Oct 2016	098	026
14 Oct 2016	098	057

Bulletin

Solar conditions were quiet with X-ray flux at background level. All four regions on disk were inactive and either stable or decaying. Solar conditions are expected to remain at very low levels. Proton flux levels were at background levels and expected to remain so. An equatorial negative polarity coronal hole is currently transiting the central meridian and may become geoeffective 3 days from now. No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

Solar wind conditions were near nominal with solar wind speed fluctuating around 400 km/s and total magnetic field around 5 nT with a declining tendency. The magnetic field phi angle was in the negative sector throughout the period. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain nominal with later tomorrow afternoon October 13 the possible passage of the October 9 CME which should only involve a small velocity increase, but may be accompanied with magnetic field perturbations. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2, NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled with later, starting tomorrow afternoon October 13, possibly minor to moderate geomagnetic storm levels associated with the possible CME arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	089
10cm solar flux	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	067 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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