Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 October 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0901Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 13/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-21 nT at 13/1529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 610 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (15 Oct) and unsettled levels on day
three (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 095 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 026/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 025/060-020/025-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 30 March 2026
X1.5 solar flare
Tuesday, 17 March 2026
M2.7 solar flare, CME arrival possible
Sunday, 1 February 2026
Complex sunspot region 4366
Latest forum messages
AR4409 186GoPro tips -which model, what settings etc 9Unspecified geomagnetic activity 139Current Farside Activity 442Artemis 2 Live 7
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/04/09 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/04/03 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| April 2026 | 118.8 +32.8 |
| Last 30 days | 103.2 +49.3 |
This day in history*
Aurora on this day in history
No observations submitted for this day in history. If you've observed the aurora and you have some amazing photos to show off, submit your observations now!
Submit your aurora observation