Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2016	096	040
14 Oct 2016	094	016
15 Oct 2016	094	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with a single C1.1 flare from Catania group 42 (NOAA active region 2599) which actually occurred right at the end of the previous reporting period. Further only B level activity was recorded. Catania group 42 (NOAA 2599) remains the most important possible source for flaring but in general, flaring is expected to remain below C level. Solar proton flux levels are at background levels and expected to remain so. No Earth directed CME's have been recorded in coronagraph data. A wide low latitude negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is starting its transit of the central meridian and may influence the solar wind conditions near Earth starting 3 days from now.

Solar wind parameters showed the earlier than expected arrival of the CME of October 9. A shock was detected in the solar wind around 21:22UT October 12 with only a moderate increase in solar wind parameters as expected. Solar wind speed was since then in the 400-450 km/s range and total magnetic field was first only in the 5-10nT range. From around 5:30UT, a further increase in the total magnetic field to around 19nT set in with associated magnetic field rotation as evident from the magnetic field phi angle, and with also a pronounced and persistent negative North South component building up to -18nT. Magnetic field values may remain enhanced and could possibly still rise further during the remainder of the day but should afterwards start to show a decline towards nominal conditions. Over the next days, however, conditions may remain slightly enhanced under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions were first quiet to unsettled but reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp=5 while local K Dourbes 4) following the persistent negative values of Bz. Geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to last over the rest of the day and into tomorrow, and may possibly reach moderate geomagnetic storm levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 044, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	080
10cm solar flux	098
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	042 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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