Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 15 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Oct 2016	094	015
16 Oct 2016	094	017
17 Oct 2016	094	012

Bulletin

Only a single C flare was observed from the new unnumbered region rotating on the disk in the South East. This C1 flare peaked at 14:49UT. The other regions on disk were mostly inactive and background X-ray flux declined to the B2 level over the period. Apart from an isolated C flare, which remains possible especially from the new region, solar activity is expected to be quiet. Solar proton flux levels were at background values and expected to remain so. Associated to the C1 flare, an Eastbound CME was observed in coronagraph images. It is not expected to influence Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph images.

Solar wind conditions showed a further trend towards nominal conditions, but remain enhanced with solar wind speed actually increasing again to around 500 km/s. The magnetic field magnitude declined from around 16nT at the start of the period to around 8nT presently. The North South component was variable but mostly positive, while the magnetic field phi angle switched into the negative sector around 15:45UT and mostly remained there. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced and increase further in the next 24-48 hours under the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to first remain quiet to unsettled and later increase to possibly active to minor storm conditions under the influence of the expected recurrent high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 036, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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