Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 October 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Oct 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Oct 2016	083	018
17 Oct 2016	082	031
18 Oct 2016	082	020

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained at background levels throughout the period. The regions on disk were stable or in decay while the region responsible for the C-flares on the previous days, rotating onto the disk in the East, is spotless and remains unnumbered. There is only a slight chance for C flaring over the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels were at background values and expected to remain so. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

Solar wind speed remained slightly enhanced after the CME passage and showed recently the expected increase due to the negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed is consequently in the range 620-700 km/s since around 7:15UT. Total magnetic field was in the 6.5-10nT range throughout the period with a variable Bz and a phi angle in the negative sector. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 48 hours due to the high speeds stream from a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3) and are expected to be quiet to active with possibly minor geomagnetic storms as the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole persists.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Oct 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	038 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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