Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 February 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2021 Feb 16 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Feb 2021	070	014
17 Feb 2021	070	012
18 Feb 2021	070	012

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The visible solar disc is spotless and the X-ray flux is below B-level. The solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) was observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind speed remained slow between 320 km/s and 375 km/s, the total magnetic field slowly increased up 10 nT and the Bz component ranged between -8.8 nT and 7.8 nT being mostly negative since February 16 at 02:00 UTC. The solar wind parameters indicate that the solar wind is slightly compressed ahead of the expected high-speed streams associated with the extension of the northern polar coronal hole (positive polarity, and facing Earth on February 13). The enhancements of the solar wind conditions are expected to persist with the speed increasing .

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active in response to the enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and the prolonged period of southward directed Bz component. Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible active periods due to the enhancement of the solar wind parameters as long as Earth remains under the influence of the coronal hole wind speed.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Feb 2021

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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