Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
22/1350Z from Region 3234 (N25E47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 511 km/s at 22/0602Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
22/0011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Feb,
24 Feb, 25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 152 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 150/148/148 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 007/008-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/16 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/15 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 109 -3.6 |
| Last 30 days | 126.1 +25.9 |