Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/1354Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 21/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
20/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 428 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (23 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 152 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 006/005-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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