Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 July 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 30/1938Z from Region 3772 (S25E59). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 30/0453Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 30/0205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 30/0208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jul 220
  Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 210/210/205
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 190

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  025/038
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  021/030-020/030-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm35%35%10%
Major-severe storm20%20%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm75%75%40%

All times in UTC

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