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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 29/0237Z from Region 3766 (S07W11). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 28/2237Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0747Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (30 Jul) and unsettled to major storm levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jul 223
  Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 215/210/210
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 189

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  010/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  042/072-024/035-021/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm35%40%40%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm79%80%80%

All times in UTC

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