Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
14/0640Z from Region 3784 (N14W05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16
Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 14/0051Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
13/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 248 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 255/260/250 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-009/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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