Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1547Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 10/0254Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/2156Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 34 pfu at 09/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Sep, 12
Sep) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (13 Sep). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (11 Sep, 12 Sep) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 205 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 205/200/200 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 018/020-012/020-023/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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