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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/2324Z from Region 3800 (S28E05). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 24/2136Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 25/0915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 233 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 235/230/230 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 208
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 005/005-008/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 45% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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