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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
22/2139Z from Region 3835 (S22E63). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 23/2033Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/1201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1386 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Sep, 26 Sep)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 167 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 011/014-013/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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