Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
24/1146Z from Region 3828 (S11W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 24/0241Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 23/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (27
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 172 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 172/170/168 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/018-012/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/12/12 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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