Viewing archive of Friday, 17 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
17/1335Z from Region 3964 (N06W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19
Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 641 km/s at 17/2038Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 17/0508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 17/0514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 764 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (18 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 227 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 199
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 012/015-010/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |