Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0058Z from Region 3964 (N06W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20
Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 18/0035Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 705 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan,
20 Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 222 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 225/230/235 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 199
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 010/010-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/06 | M8.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 106.4 +12.9 |