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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
02/1404Z from Region 3977 (N19E00). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 01/2217Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 02/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1653 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04
Feb, 05 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 216 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 021/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 017/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/014-013/018-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/12 | M1.19 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 74.8 -19.6 |
| Last 30 days | 87 -20.2 |
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