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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
03/0358Z from Region 3981 (N05E09). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 658 km/s at 03/0714Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
03/0212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 220 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 013/018-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/13 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 116.2 +3.6 |
| Last 30 days | 130.8 +34.3 |