Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
04/1121Z from Region 3981 (N07W03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 484 km/s at 03/2236Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
03/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/0331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 319 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Feb, 06 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (07 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 212 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/13 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 112.1 -0.5 |
| Last 30 days | 128.7 +30.6 |