Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May,
07 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 874 km/s at 03/2134Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 04/1441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9364 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (05 May, 06 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 May).
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 159 Predicted 05 May-07 May 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 020/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 014/018-010/012-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |