Viewing archive of Monday, 5 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May,
08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 889 km/s at 05/2054Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 16254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 159 Predicted 06 May-08 May 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 05 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 017/ 29 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 021/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 018/021-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/04/24 | X2.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/05/29 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/05/16 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| May 2026 | 96.6 +17.3 |
| Last 30 days | 97.8 +4.4 |
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