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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May, 10 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 07/0544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12994 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (10 May).
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 154
  Predicted   08 May-10 May 155/160/155
  90 Day Mean        07 May 167

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  015/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  008/010-017/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm05%30%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm35%70%50%

All times in UTC

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