Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May,
09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 05/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/1311Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1718Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11876 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 156 Predicted 07 May-09 May 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 06 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 023/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 012/015-008/010-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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