Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 May) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 13/0828Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 13/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
13/1832Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 13/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 705 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one
(14 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15
May).
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 75% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 117 Predicted 14 May-16 May 116/116/116 90 Day Mean 13 May 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 007/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 008/003-011/004-007/003
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/01 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/01 | M5.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| Last 30 days | 119.2 +2.7 |