Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16
May, 17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 14/0740Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 14/1719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
14/1651Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 13/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 May, 17 May)
and quiet levels on day two (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 122 Predicted 15 May-17 May 116/116/118 90 Day Mean 14 May 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 009/ 009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 011/012-007/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 1 December 2025
X1.9 solar flare, Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 14 November 2025
X4.0 solar flare
Tuesday, 11 November 2025
X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR4294 / 4296 / 4298 303AR 4299 24Current Farside Activity 236Unspecified geomagnetic activity 40Space Weather Memes 760
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |