Viewing archive of Monday, 19 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May,
22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 686 km/s at 18/2158Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1869 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 May, 21 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 117 Predicted 20 May-22 May 118/118/120 90 Day Mean 19 May 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 016/ 022 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 011/012-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/10 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 108.9 +11.4 |