Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 June 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 15/0312Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 669 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jun). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Jun) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 65% | 45% | 35% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 161 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 021/ 024 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 013/016-014/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
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| Last 30 days | 119.8 +2.9 |