Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 May 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May,
24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 679 km/s at 21/0725Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/2357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 999 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (23 May) and quiet levels on day three (24 May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 119 Predicted 22 May-24 May 120/122/122 90 Day Mean 21 May 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 012/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 007/010-009/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 45% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/03/28 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/25 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| March 2026 | 84 +5.8 |
| Last 30 days | 84 +6.2 |
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