Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 June 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19
Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 17/0031Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 16/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/1232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Jun, 19 Jun) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (20 Jun). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19
Jun, 20 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 139 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 010/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 014/017-010/012-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.4 +13.7 |