Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 June 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jun 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 19/0712Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/1004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (22
Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 136 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 018/024-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |