Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 July 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 15/2224Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/1704Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4844 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 152 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 125/128/130 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 017/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 009/008-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Spotless days | |
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| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
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