Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 July 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 12/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
12/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 435 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 139 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 012/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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