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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 19/2225Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
20/1014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14494 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (23 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 150 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 005/005-005/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |