Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 July 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 577 km/s at 19/0042Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
18/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0449Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11582 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 153 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 150/148/145 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |