Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 07/0711Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 752 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day one (08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 151 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 009/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 022/032-021/026-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 60% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 119.3 -4.7 |
| Last 30 days | 120.3 +3.4 |