Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 806 km/s at 03/0403Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 02/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(06 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 180 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 180/178/175 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 025/ 034 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 007/008-008/012-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/05 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| February 2026 | 141.3 +17.3 |
| Last 30 days | 123.1 +14.7 |