Viewing archive of Monday, 11 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 594 km/s at 10/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Aug, 13 Aug) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Aug). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13
Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 146 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 014/015-013/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2026/02/09 | M2.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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