Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 July 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul,
18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 766 km/s at 15/0243Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 15/0203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 15/0241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1798 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 139 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 128/125/128 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 016/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 021/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 013/014-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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