Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug,
22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 842 km/s at 20/0549Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 20/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (23 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 120 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 016/ 019 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 012/014-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/02 | X1.6 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/02 | M6.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| February 2026 | 97 -27 |
| Last 30 days | 118.3 +3.5 |