Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 19/1521Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 19/1231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 19/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 471 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (22
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 116 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 005/ 007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 015/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 018/025-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/08 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 162.7 +70.9 |
| Last 30 days | 108 +13.3 |