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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Aug, 27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/0855Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/0915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
25/1231Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 25/1415Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1860 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (27 Aug, 28 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 85% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 175 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 152/155/155 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 011/015-009/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/06 | M8.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 167.7 +75.9 |
| Last 30 days | 107.1 +13.7 |