Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Aug, 28 Aug, 29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 26/0446Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0402Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11 pfu at 26/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 368 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Aug), have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (28 Aug) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (29 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Proton | 95% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 202 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 200/200/205 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 007/ 008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 009/010-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/04 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| February 2026 | 133 +9 |
| Last 30 days | 120.6 +10.9 |