Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 29 0005 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 28/2149Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/2357Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8 pfu at 28/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Aug, 31
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on day one (29 Aug) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 60% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 232 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 235/240/240 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/21 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 110 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 114.8 +6.7 |