Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 26/2134Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/1101Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13 pfu at 27/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 Aug, 29 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (30 Aug). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on day one (28 Aug) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 60% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 226 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 225/225/228 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/ 008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/09 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 157.7 +65.9 |
| Last 30 days | 108.9 +11.4 |