Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 30/0950Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
30/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
30/0802Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 30/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (02 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Aug), have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (01 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 317 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 220/215/210 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 007/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/20 | Kp8 (G4) |
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