Viewing archive of Friday, 26 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep,
29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 500 km/s at 25/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
26/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
25/2211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 165 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 008/008-013/018-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 45% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.4 +13.7 |